Where are we headed?

NODs and Trustee’s Deeds: Grim signs of real estate’s present condition | first tuesday journal online


The above link is an article I know will garner a lot of discussion.
I seem to not attend a party or gathering without someone asking me where I think the real estate market is headed in the coming year. The past several years have offered us a mixed bag of ups and downs - prices went up for a bit, interest rates went down. Then NOD's (Notice of Defaults) went up, yet the number of foreclosures went down (as they were NOD's being held and not processed). Prices have gone steady - even down in parts, sales have slowed, interest rates are down and the year is ending with a sense of uncertainty. Where are we headed?

The economy in general is struggling. As anyone can see from looking at friends and family out of work, moving or losing a home due to new financial situations, there is a definite air of uncertainty. Then there is that sign of hope we see - glimmering out in the darkest, blackest sky: A house on my grandma's street closed about $40K over asking price (Yes, OVER in this market)... interest rates are still in the 4% range (what's this talk about them ticking up?!) Inventory is steadily priced and so it becomes easier to ascertain that, for a buyer, this is a wonderful time to make the committment.

Now, we know there is talk of more foreclosure, more "shadow inventory" the banks are holding on to, and we are still in dire need of more, long-term jobs. But, if your job is steady, you've been out there, watching the market, wondering and waiting - I cannot think of a better time to buy. What if prices go down 2% or even 5%? Guess what? Even if prices go down, there is always the chance of interest going up. There's always risks involved with homeownership. There's risks involved in life - in every decision we make, every committment we make.

I think the economy has given us all a good chance to reassess what we are willing to risk. If you are ready to make the leap into homeownership, I still think if you can make the committment, it's a pretty safe risk!